June Stock Market Thoughts

Coronavirus hurt the Business world even more in May even though all the States started reopening in some way or another. I have heard of many small businesses that have had to file bankruptcy and close their doors for good. A lot of dreams and retirement savings lost during the last few months. It is sad.  

Our Stocks are coming back slowly which is nice but we still have Coronavirus costing us money in other ways. For instance, it looks like our canceled Disney cruise is going to cost us $1,962 plus the memories we could have created with our kids and parents.

Even though some companies are reducing their dividends or stopping them we feel they will come back after we get back to normal someday. It could take a few years and we are prepared for it.

We still are encouraging our boys to keep investing into the stock market. Our friend called yesterday from Iowa and reminded them about cost averaging and look at the long run. We are hoping that Logan will Invest most of his Navy pay for the next ten to twenty years.

These ugly months are not fun to talk about but I need to talk about the ugly months along with the good months to show we are all human. Everyone has different situations and investments but hopefully this blog gives you ideas on ways to improve your situation. Even though it is for entertainment purposes only. I know we are so thankful that we live Debt Free and have one steady income right now since our Investments could be paying out less for a while till our economy recovers from this.

When it comes to our Stock Market monthly thoughts, I like to read a lot of information from many different sources. I have narrowed down my readings to trusted advisors. You can get confused and lost if you try listening to everyone out there. There is a lot of noise for sure. This blog is in no way giving you any financial advice or legal advice or health advise. You need to see a professional for that. That is my disclaimer for all my blogs and this one also.

Some of the sources we like to read info from Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab, Bob Brinker Report, Zach’s, Fisher Investments, American Association of Individual Investors (aaii), The Independent Advisor for Vanguard, My brother, A few friends and my Dad. Below are my January Stock Market thoughts and where we are invested;

Mills Family is currently at; To See details just Click Here

June Crystal Ball thoughts (LOL) from some sources are;

I like reading the Brinker Report and aaii.com the most. I feel good reading a lot of information but I still believe in riding out the roller coaster for our situation. There is a wide range of choices and it seems like more companies are getting into the Robo Advisers game. I feel this is the future and I can see us going this route with some of our Investments someday.

AAii website that I am a life member at said on 6/1/20;

“Stocks Rise to Begin June as Reopening Hopes Blossom

U.S. stocks rose on Monday to start off the new month amid increasing hope of a successful reopening of the economy. Those gains come after back-to-back monthly increases for stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrials enjoyed strong gains of 91.91 points to 25,475.02.

The S&P 500 added 11.42 points to 3,055.73.

The NASDAQ Composite picked up 62.18 points to 9,552.05.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since early March while the NASDAQ ended the session at levels not seen since late February.

Stocks closely linked to the economy reopening led the slight gains. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean were all up at least 6.7%. Hilton Worldwide climbed 3.3% and Marriott International advanced 7.4%. American Airlines sprang up 5.8% and Delta advanced 3.8%, while United went airborne 5.1%.

Those gains were slightly offset, however, by a 7.2% drop in Pfizer shares.

Last week’s gains led the major averages to their first back-to-back monthly advances since late 2019. The Dow advanced 4.3%, and S&P 500 gained 4.5%, for May while the NASDAQ amassed 6.8%.

More than six million coronavirus cases have been confirmed globally, including over 1.7 million in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University. However, Novavax said last week is started Phase 1 clinical trials for its coronavirus vaccine candidate while Moderna said May 18 its early stage vaccine trial had yielded positive results.

Prices for the 10-Year Treasury slid, raising yields to 0.66% from Friday’s 0.65%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Oil prices eked up four cents to $35.53 U.S. a barrel.

Gold prices dropped 90 cents to $1,750.80 U.S. an ounce.”

News Provided by Livemoney via QuoteMedia

Fidelity website where we have most of our money with said on 5/29/20;

Global markets have recovered much of their COVID-19 induced losses, as the wild price swings at the height of the market panic have moderated. As of May 28, 2020, the MSCI World Index and S&P 500 have regained roughly 60% and 66% of the losses from their February peaks, respectively.

While stocks will almost certainly be driven primarily by trends in new cases and mortalities related to coronavirus over the near term—as well as potential vaccination and treatment developments—that doesn’t mean the pandemic is the only factor to think about if you are actively investing with some portion of your portfolio.

Here are a few key market events to monitor as you attempt to manage a diversified portfolio of investments.

 

COVID-19

It goes without saying that the primary market mover right now—and in all likelihood over the next several weeks and months—is the pandemic. Key public health data to monitor remain trends in new COVID-19 infection rates (see Bending the coronavirus curve chart) and related mortalities from sources like Johns Hopkins, the Centers for Disease Control, and the World Health Organization.

Investors may want to keep an eye on concerning trends out of regions like South America, where Brazil has seen a resurgence in new COVID-19 cases and is now the 2nd most afflicted country worldwide, as well as the potential for a 2nd wave to hit other countries as governments loosen restrictions.

 

Economic and earnings reports

The fact that stocks have recouped much of their pandemic losses despite global economies being firmly in recession should reinforce how unique this market is. In addition to the historic monetary and fiscal stimulus implemented by numerous governments around the world, the rebound for stocks may be attributed to an anticipation that economic activity and earnings will recover quickly.

Next twelve months (NTM) earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 plunged to multiyear lows (see Next twelve months earnings per share has nosedived chart), but as the economy has begun to open back up, bullish investors may believe that forward earnings could reverse this sharp downtrend.

Monitoring economic and earnings reports may be particularly important during this phase of the pandemic, to help assess how economies are responding to opening back up. Some of these metrics include, but are not limited to, trends in weekly unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, manufacturing activity, energy demand, and more.

This data can also be supplemented by insights from individual companies in their quarterly earnings reports, press releases, and other announcements. For example, airline operators have been hit extremely hard by a historic drop in air travel. Since March, total air transportation travel in kilometers for revenue passengers is at lows not seen since the late 2000s (see Global air travel has plummeted chart). Individual airline operators might provide useful insights into their expectations for future bookings.

Air traffic is not likely to pick back up significantly over the short term. The United Nations World Tourism Organization expects global tourism to decline 70% this year, as more people are expected to take trips by land rather than on flights. That compares with the previous global crisis that resulted in a 10% to 20% annual decline in global tourism. With that said, air travel passengers’ willingness to get back on flights eventually would be one sign that consumer sentiment has improved, with spillover implications for a variety of other industries.

 

Trade wars

It’s easy to forget what “normal” market conditions looked like before the pandemic. Yet it wasn’t that long ago that global trade wars were a primary factor moving markets—in addition to underlying earnings for individual companies.

Tensions between the world’s 2 largest economies remain, with the US and China still posturing for advantageous trade positions across a range of industries. Moreover, the possibility now exists this relationship could be further complicated by COVID-19. For example, might individual country’s trade policies shift in a world where supply chains were so easily disrupted by the novel coronavirus, creating myriad problems, including access to much needed supplies to battle the pandemic? Investors should continue to monitor how nations and businesses may adapt.

Elections and more

Looking a bit further out, there are several elections on the calendar for 2020 that may impact markets. These include the September 2020 legislative election in Hong Kong, where political instability had been a significant concern prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the November 2020 US Presidential and Congressional elections.

As always, geopolitical events and other market-shaping developments might add to the seemingly full platter for investors to think about. With that said, coronavirus is almost certainly the predominant factor to shape the stock market for some time as the calendar shifts into summer.”

The One Thing Covid-19 Cannot Restrict: Innovation – from Mitch on the Markets from Zacks Management email 5/2/20 said:

“During World War II, the US economy adapted into what was termed an “Arsenal of Democracy,” mobilizing industry to turn car factories into assembly lines for Liberator bombers and shipyards into production facilities for Liberty freight ships. The US economy – and all of the great innovators and leaders within it – evolved to meet the needs of the time, producing ammunition, uniforms, bombers, and tanks.

Today, we are seeing innovation and mobilization of a different kind, for a different type of fight. Corporations big and small across America are shifting production to make personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, sanitizer, treatments, tests, and perhaps most importantly, to develop a vaccine.1 It may not be perfect and it may not be seamless, but the country is aggressively using the engines of private enterprise and innovation to respond to this crisis – and it’s making a big difference.

Economic headlines tend to overwhelmingly focus on what is being lost – jobs, GDP growth, corporate profits, etc. This is fair reporting, as the short-term economic pain is acute and affecting millions of American lives during this period. But focusing overwhelmingly on near-term, weak economic data often clouds our ability to acknowledge what is actually working – the very engines that make the economy resilient over the long term.”

I sure hope this is a temporary thing and the markets bounce back. It is no fun when the market seems to be sliding downward everyday and in some big numbers.

There will be months and years down and months and years up. I still feel the long run will be positive and we will have a comfortable retirement in Arizona.  I just hope it is the normal rollercoaster of the stock market and nothing more. I try my best to check my accounts once a month so I don’t drive my nerves crazy by daily ups and downs. Another reason I like Dividend stocks. Even though a few of my Dividend stocks canceled paying Dividends till there stock prices and profits come back.

I don’t think we will ever see Fake News end. We may always hear some of the truth and some fake stuff in the news. Hopefully people won’t react and just leave the money in stocks. Remember stocks is a long-term vision for most. But I see a lot of volatility the next few years.

For sure it isn’t fun when stock values are down, but remember that the stock market in the past has been like a roller coaster of going up and down but over time it has gone up more than down. 

I look at all the people out driving cars, spending money, going to work and those are all good signs of a good economy. Not to mention down here in Arizona there is major growth of Office Buildings, Job openings and houses being built. That means to me a strong economy.

My stocks in my Brokerage Account are all dividend stocks and I am in it for the long run. I am hoping to live off the dividend in to my 70’s. Even though a Financial Adviser tried talking me out of taking Social Security till age 70, I am still planning on waiting till age 70. I have done up a new projection for our family plans taking us to age 95. If you want to see it let me know. What are your plans?

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 25,383.11 on 5/1/20, 24,345.72 on 5/1/20, then was 24,815.04 on 5/31/19. It was up over a year ago 568.07 or up 2.28%. Ouch… If you see the chart of the last 12 months it looks like a wild roller coaster ride.

I know there are many different sources of investment opinions out there. They all say they are the best. You can find some that say dooms day is coming and some say buy now the market is going high. Who knows, I like aaii, Bob Brinker, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Angels and Entrepreneurs network and Zach’s for my blended info on the market. I feel if I take any more info in it can get even more confusing.

My kids I would love that they grow up debt free and invest in companies that seem safe and long term. If I could only go back in time and invest all my money I made as a kid into Microsoft. Another dream of mine. I could be living quite well just off the dividends.

At my age I am getting less risky and more into conserving our money to last us during our retirement years. It could be the wrong strategy but that is what we are doing currently. Things could always change in the future or once the boys move out.

People want to make more money each year so the companies need to make more money each year and to keep growing. So, I am positive for the outlook in United States companies. What are your thoughts?

We pray that Coronavirus will be come to a end and they find a cure and vaccine for it. We don’t want to see any more people get sick or die from it. Keep thinking positive thoughts.

Here is a positive quote I like; “Remind yourself daily that there is no way to happiness; rather, happiness is the way.” ― Wayne W. Dyer, Change Your Thoughts – Change Your Life: Living the Wisdom of the Tao

Don’t give up on your dreams; don’t let others talk you out of your dreams. Make your dreams happen. Make it happen today.

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