May Stock Market Thoughts

Coronavirus in April hurt the Business world. Pretty much every state was shut down. Now in May 35 states have some plans on reopening slowly and 15 are staying shut down longer. In Arizona they have us being shutdown till May 15th.

This is a heated topic but it seems like most of my golfing friends and business friends agree that we need to open up. The question of the day is how long can we keep our country closed up until we are past a point of no return. Sorry to be so negative but it is how I feel.

Some may say that I should feel different about business opening back up because my Mom died of it. She was 86 years old and had other major medical issues also. She lived a good life and it was her time I guess to be up in heaven with Dad Square Dancing together again.

What happens with your finances if you don’t have any income coming in but you have bills that keep coming in and you keep adding your costs of living to your debt. Someday your line of credit will run out and then what? If you have never been in massive debt problem’s I can tell you it is no fun at all. We need to get our Economy up and running soon.

We hear this on the TV everyday the sad stories of people and businesses broke but yet we stay closed up? Some are open and those are really busy since others are closed. If people wanted businesses closed, they wouldn’t leave their homes to go shopping at the open ones. I went by a Nursery today and there parking lot was full. The golf course was full today.

We have two boys that keep eating a ton of food and it seems like some people give me looks like they are mad at me for being out buying groceries. Some like dive away from you. They are out shopping also so what is the big deal. We still need to eat.

I have talked with many people with different views. A lot of my friends do believe we need to get businesses back open. One guy said yesterday that he was shot at in Afghanistan and didn’t die, if he dies from some flu bug then it was his time.

My wife works in the Grocery Business so she is worried about it and is constantly cleaning with Lysol wipes on anything we touch. There are many different views right now and can be a hot topic not to talk about. For me it is numbers and percentages, I feel we need to get businesses back open or our country could really be in bad shape in the future. Just my thoughts.

These ugly months are not fun to talk about but I need to talk about the ugly months along with the good months to show we are all human. Everyone has different situations and investments but hopefully this blog gives you ideas on ways to improve your situation. Even though it is for entertainment purposes only. I know we are so thankful that we live Debt Free and have one steady income right now since our Investments could be paying out less for a while till our economy recovers from this.

When it comes to our Stock Market monthly thoughts, I like to read a lot of information from many different sources. I have narrowed down my readings to trusted advisors. You can get confused and lost if you try listening to everyone out there. There is a lot of noise for sure. This blog is in no way giving you any financial advice or legal advice or health advise. You need to see a professional for that. That is my disclaimer for all my blogs and this one also.

Some of the sources we like to read info from Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab, Bob Brinker Report, Zach’s, Fisher Investments, American Association of Individual Investors (aaii), The Independent Advisor for Vanguard, My brother, A few friends and my Dad. Below are my January Stock Market thoughts and where we are invested;

Mills Family is currently at;

– 31.18% in Real Estate

– 23.66% in Dividend Stocks for Income to live on

– 43.98% in Stocks and Stock Funds for Retirement

– 0.59% in Digital Currency

– 0.59% in Cash Currently. I would like to keep around 5% in Cash as a goal

To Read more details about our situation click here to follow us on Patreon/Millsway

April Crystal Ball thoughts (LOL) from some sources are;

I like reading the Brinker Report and aaii.com the most. I feel good reading a lot of information but I still believe in riding out the roller coaster for our situation. There is a wide range of choices and it seems like more companies are getting into the Robo Advisers game. I feel this is the future and I can see us going this route with some of our Investments someday.

AAii editor May Update E-mail sent to me on 5/1/20 said Coronavirus Leads to a Rough Start for 2020

The first quarter of 2020 captured the transition into a bear market and a recession in a short period of time due to the coronavirus outbreak.

The only mutual funds in the QMFU universe with positive returns for the quarter were bond funds. The Northern U.S. Treasury Index (BTIAX) and the Columbia U.S. Treasury Index A (LUTAX) gained 8.4% and 8.0%, respectively, as the best and second-best performers for the first quarter.

For the best- and worst-performing domestic, international and sector funds, it was a question only of how small the losses were. The T. Rowe Price Communications and Technology Investor (PRMTX) sector fund was the top performer with a loss of 6.1%. The Fidelity Select Energy Service Portfolio (FSESX) was the worst performer with a 66.3% drop.

Jim Cramer Street Sell in May? email sent to me 5/1/20 said: “This market has rallied too far, too fast, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Friday. And even after the day’s declines, it is still overbought. Cramer said he’s hoping the markets continue to cool off next week, which is why his game plan includes a healthy dose of caution.”

Zacks Investment Management emails 5/2/20 said:

“In today’s Steady Investor, we look at key factors that we believe are currently impacting the market and what could be next for the markets such as: US GDP Declines -4.8% in Q1Market Rallies – On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy shrank at an annual -4.8% pace in Q1, marking the sharpest rate of decline since 2008. This is the BEA’s first Q1 GDP estimate (there are usually four), so we might reasonably expect that the final numbers for Q1 are slightly better or worse than -4.8%. Even still, the S&P 500 rallied +2.66% on the same day, which the financial media mainly attributed to a promising Covid-19 treatment being developed by Gilead Sciences. For those perplexed by how the stock market could rally over +2% on a day when GDP figures were so dismal, you need only remember that the stock market does not move on backward-looking data. We would argue that when the S&P 500 plummeted -34% from February highs, the equity markets were pricing-in the bruising GDP figures we’re only learning today. The stock market is forward-looking, not backward-looking. As for the hit to economic growth in the US, the contraction was largely expected, and we should also expect further declines in Q2. Personal consumption of services contributed to 47% of GDP in 2019, and with the services segment of the economy virtually shut down with social-distancing, it follows that services consumption fell -10.2% annualized in Q1. 1 It is likely to fall further in Q2, but that may not matter for the stock market, which appears to be pricing-in the recovery that could hit in Q3 and Q4.

What to Make of Unprecedented Times? Investors and businesses are navigating unprecedented times. As we wait for the virus to pass and the economy to recover, many investors may be wondering what they can do now as we wait. In the meantime, I recommend that investors remain calm, focus on the long term and not let emotions take control of their investments”

The One Thing Covid-19 Cannot Restrict: Innovation – from Mitch on the Markets from Zacks Management email 5/2/20 said:

“During World War II, the US economy adapted into what was termed an “Arsenal of Democracy,” mobilizing industry to turn car factories into assembly lines for Liberator bombers and shipyards into production facilities for Liberty freight ships. The US economy – and all of the great innovators and leaders within it – evolved to meet the needs of the time, producing ammunition, uniforms, bombers, and tanks.

Today, we are seeing innovation and mobilization of a different kind, for a different type of fight. Corporations big and small across America are shifting production to make personal protective equipment (PPE), ventilators, sanitizer, treatments, tests, and perhaps most importantly, to develop a vaccine.1 It may not be perfect and it may not be seamless, but the country is aggressively using the engines of private enterprise and innovation to respond to this crisis – and it’s making a big difference.

Economic headlines tend to overwhelmingly focus on what is being lost – jobs, GDP growth, corporate profits, etc. This is fair reporting, as the short-term economic pain is acute and affecting millions of American lives during this period. But focusing overwhelmingly on near-term, weak economic data often clouds our ability to acknowledge what is actually working – the very engines that make the economy resilient over the long term.”

I sure hope this is a temporary thing and the markets bounce back. It is no fun when the market seems to be sliding downward everyday and in some big numbers.

There will be months and years down and months and years up. I still feel the long run will be positive and we will have a comfortable retirement in Arizona.  I just hope it is the normal rollercoaster of the stock market and nothing more. I try my best to check my accounts once a month so I don’t drive my nerves crazy by daily ups and downs. Another reason I like Dividend stocks. Even though a few of my Dividend stocks canceled paying Dividends till there stock prices and profits come back.

I don’t think we will ever see Fake News end. We may always hear some of the truth and some fake stuff in the news. Hopefully people won’t react and just leave the money in stocks. Remember stocks is a long-term vision for most. But I see a lot of volatility the next few years.

For sure it isn’t fun when stock values are down, but remember that the stock market in the past has been like a roller coaster of going up and down but over time it has gone up more than down. 

I look at all the people out driving cars, spending money, going to work and those are all good signs of a good economy. Not to mention down here in Arizona there is major growth of Office Buildings, Job openings and houses being built. That means to me a strong economy.

My stocks in my Brokerage Account are all dividend stocks and I am in it for the long run. I am hoping to live off the dividend in to my 70’s. Even though a Financial Adviser tried talking me out of taking Social Security till age 70, I am still planning on waiting till age 70. I have done up a new projection for our family plans taking us to age 95. If you want to see it let me know. What are your plans?

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 24,345.72 on 5/1/20, 21,917.16 on 4/1/20, then was 26,592.91 on 5/1/19. It was down over a year ago 2,247.19 or down8.45%. Ouch… If you see the chart of the last 12 months it looks like a wild roller coaster ride.

I know there are many different sources of investment opinions out there. They all say they are the best. You can find some that say dooms day is coming and some say buy now the market is going high. Who knows, I like aaii, Bob Brinker, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Angels and Entrepreneurs network and Zach’s for my blended info on the market. I feel if I take any more info in it can get even more confusing.

My kids I would love that they grow up debt free and invest in companies that seem safe and long term. If I could only go back in time and invest all my money I made as a kid into Microsoft. Another dream of mine. I could be living quite well just off the dividends.

At my age I am getting less risky and more into conserving our money to last us during our retirement years. It could be the wrong strategy but that is what we are doing currently. Things could always change in the future or once the boys move out.

People want to make more money each year so the companies need to make more money each year and to keep growing. So, I am positive for the outlook in United States companies. What are your thoughts?

We pray that Coronavirus will be come to a end and they find a cure and vaccine for it. We don’t want to see any more people get sick or die from it. Keep thinking positive thoughts.

Here is a positive quote I like; “Remind yourself daily that there is no way to happiness; rather, happiness is the way.” ― Wayne W. Dyer, Change Your Thoughts – Change Your Life: Living the Wisdom of the Tao

Don’t give up on your dreams; don’t let others talk you out of your dreams. Make your dreams happen. Make it happen today.

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