September Stock Market Thoughts

If we would have watched no News on TV and just checked our Stock values at the end of the month, we would think the world was all great and we were back on track.

But if you did watch the News on TV this month then some of you may feel the world is going down the toilet. Wow, all the riots and more businesses going bankrupt because our local governments won’t let them open up because of Coronavirus concerns. It is

Everyone has different situations and investments but hopefully this blog gives you ideas on ways to improve your situation. Even though it is for entertainment purposes only. I know we are so thankful that we live Debt Free and have one steady income right now since our Investments could be paying out less for a while till our economy recovers from this.

If you know people that are going through a tough time with their finances maybe suggest they buy a copy of my Book called “MONEY $ECRET$ TO MAKE YOU RICH”. Especially this year it is showing how many people are not prepared financially prepared for tough times.

We do enjoy these months were the stock market has some solid gains. We had 90% of our stocks up for the month and our other investments did well also.

When it comes to our Stock Market monthly thoughts, I like to read a lot of information from many different sources. I have narrowed down my readings to trusted advisors. You can get confused and lost if you try listening to everyone out there. There is a lot of noise for sure. This blog is in no way giving you any financial advice or legal advice or health advise. You need to see a professional for that. That is my disclaimer for all my blogs and this one also.

Some of the sources we like to read info from Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab, Bob Brinker Report, Zach’s, Fisher Investments, American Association of Individual Investors (aaii), The Independent Advisor for Vanguard, My brother, A few friends and my Dad. Below are my January Stock Market thoughts and where we are invested;

Mills Family is currently at; To Read our results and where we are at just click here and join

September Crystal Ball thoughts (LOL) from some sources are;

I like reading the Brinker Report and aaii.com the most. I feel good reading a lot of information but I still believe in riding out the roller coaster for our situation. There is a wide range of choices and it seems like more companies are getting into the Robo Advisers game. I feel this is the future and I can see us going this route with some of our Investments someday.

Investment House August 27, 2020 article sent by email – written by Jon Johnson

A Test Is Coming

– Big tech leaders fade after the surge while recovery stocks bounce.
– Chairman Powell says what everyone knows — the Phillips curve just doesn’t work.
– Chips are not helping the market, as technical indicators are suggesting that a test is coming.
– Is this just a pause before another bounce? Will the recovery stocks continue to rise?

Over the past week, I have opened with jests about “historic” moves — before the Wednesday blast higher, of course. Today, history was indeed made, and it was one of the most positive changes from the Fed regarding how we view economics I have seen over my lifetime.

I am, indeed, talking about the Fed and Chairman Powell’s virtual speech to the virtual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. In a nutshell, the Fed chairman jettisoned the Phillips curve’s notion that rising unemployment means less inflation. In fact, he stated that there was no empirical evidence to support the notion. I have argued this point for all of my “woke” economic career, especially after I started correlating history to economic theory. 

I discussed this point for my paid subscribers on Thursday — it is a fascinating view of the accepted theory. That is, the Phillips curve was accepted because it could be used to achieve certain goals by those who likely knew better and needed a tool to achieve their objectives. The Phillips curve was a useful tool, but only for purpose-driven ends, not for economics.

Technical Analysis:

NASDAQ: It gapped modestly higher, rallied and faded to a modest loss on the session. While it showed its own doji, it was rather loose. Thus, this doji was not as much an indicator as the one that appeared on the S&P 500’s graph. We are 12 sessions up in this move off of the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). Perhaps it can squeeze out another solid move — the day after the pause will be crucial.

S&P 500: Six sessions to the upside was followed with a gap to a tight doji on Thursday. After a steady move up or down, a doji suggests change. It can also indicate a pause. If so, it is a continuation doji, as the move in place will continue. We will see which is true. While the other indicators suggest that a near-term top is forming, leadership is strong.

NOTE: The figures and information above are from the 8/27 report.” I know we may never had heard from this guy before but I like to see different opinions.

Fidelity Website on 8/13/20 said;

As of mid-August 2020, US stocks—as measured by the S&P 500—have recaptured all of their losses since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Yet the V-shaped recovery for stocks (see US stocks recover February highs chart) has not coincided with a similar recovery in the US economy. While earnings look better than expected as monetary policy has provided liquidity and investor sentiment has held up, the increasing spread of the virus in parts of the US, coupled with persistently high rates of unemployment, make for a muddled picture.

f you are an active investor, you may have found yourself asking how strong the momentum is behind the US market. One technical indicator that can help shed some light on this question is ADX. According to ADX, the market may have momentum to keep the rally going over the short term.

Why strength matters

There are many ways that you can incorporate indicators and technical analysis into your investing strategy. One way is to use indicators and other chart techniques to supplement your overall assessment of the fundamentals of the global economy, the business cycle, and other factors relevant to your analysis.

Whereas technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and stochastics can help you determine at what price to buy and sell a stock, ADX is used to help determine how strong a trend is. From an investing perspective, strength can be an important factor as it can help determine if there is momentum behind a market move.

To understand why, consider a hypothetical stock that is rising in price. Would you rather own this stock if the uptrend were strengthening or weakening? From a technical analysis perspective, a rising stock in a strong uptrend may suggest greater likelihood of continuing to rise than the same stock whose uptrend is showing signs of weakness.

ADX up close

ADX is a short-term indicator that can be used under any type of market conditions (e.g., bull or bear markets, high or low volatility, etc.), and can complement your understanding of what’s happening in the market.

Unlike other technical indicators, however, readings above 60 do not occur frequently for ADX. In practice, most chart analysts believe a reading above 25 typically indicates a strong trend and a reading below 20 usually suggests there is no trend. No clear signal exists between 25 and 20.

A rising ADX line generally means that an existing trend is strengthening. This is noteworthy because, if ADX suggests the trend is strong (i.e., ADX is rising), then trend-following systems—such as moving averages and channel breakouts—are expected to have more validity. Alternatively, if you see a falling ADX line, which indicates an existing trend is weak or there is no trend, you may not want to place as much value in the signals given by trend-following systems.

The chart above is a simplified version of the ADX indicator. There are actually 3 lines. The most important one, as seen above, is the ADX line. In addition, there are 2 other lines: A DMI plus line (sometimes shown on charts as DMI+ or DI+) and a DMI minus line (sometimes shown on charts as DMI- or DI-). DMI stands for directional movement indicator. Whereas the ADX line determines the strength of the trend, the 2 DMI lines complement the ADX line by helping determine the trend’s direction.

The direction of the trend is interpreted as positive when the DMI plus line is higher than the DMI minus line. Conversely, the direction of the trend is interpreted as negative when the DMI minus line is higher than the DMI plus line.” Fidelity website I trust a lot and it can be a good resource for most people. I also like Aii.com website for info.

I sure like it when the markets bounce back. It is no fun when the market seems to be sliding downward everyday and in some big numbers. Even though we still have some stocks in some sectors still way down but I hope they will come back once this Covid-19 stuff is over and all the riots are done. We need some positive News on the TV.

There will be months and years down and months and years up. I still feel the long run will be positive and we will have a comfortable retirement in Arizona.  I just hope it is the normal rollercoaster of the stock market and nothing more. I try my best to check my accounts once a month so I don’t drive my nerves crazy by daily ups and downs. Another reason I like Dividend stocks. Even though a few of my Dividend stocks canceled paying Dividends till there stock prices and profits come back.

I don’t think we will ever see Fake News end. We may always hear some of the truth and some fake stuff in the news. Hopefully people won’t react and just leave the money in stocks. Remember stocks is a long-term vision for most. But I see a lot of volatility the next few years.

For sure it isn’t fun when stock values are down, but remember that the stock market in the past has been like a roller coaster of going up and down but over time it has gone up more than down. 

I look at all the people out driving cars, spending money, going to work and those are all good signs of a good economy. Not to mention down here in Arizona there is major growth of Office Buildings, Job openings and houses being built. That means to me a strong economy.

My stocks in my Brokerage Account are all dividend stocks and I am in it for the long run. I am hoping to live off the dividend in to my 70’s. Even though a Financial Adviser tried talking me out of taking Social Security till age 70, I am still planning on waiting till age 70. I have done up a new projection for our family plans taking us to age 95. We are hoping our 4% withdraw plan works out for us. If you want to see it let me know. What are your plans?

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 28,653.87 on 8/30/20, 26,428.32 on 8/1/20, then was 26,362.25 on 9/1/19. It was up over a year ago, just 2,291.62 or up 8.69%. Nice… If you see the chart of the last 12 months it looks like a wild roller coaster ride.

I know there are many different sources of investment opinions out there. They all say they are the best. You can find some that say dooms day is coming and some say buy now the market is going high. Who knows, I like aaii, Bob Brinker, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Angels and Entrepreneurs network and Zach’s for my blended info on the market. I feel if I take any more info in it can get even more confusing.

My kids I would love that they grow up debt free and invest in companies that seem safe and long term. If I could only go back in time and invest all my money I made as a kid into Microsoft. Another dream of mine. I could be living quite well just off the dividends.

At my age I am getting less risky and more into conserving our money to last us during our retirement years. It could be the wrong strategy but that is what we are doing currently. Things could always change in the future or once the boys move out.

People want to make more money each year so the companies need to make more money each year and to keep growing. So, I am positive for the outlook in United States companies. What are your thoughts?

We pray that Coronavirus will be come to an end and they find a cure and vaccine for it. We don’t want to see any more people get sick or die from it. Keep thinking positive thoughts.

Here is a positive quote I like; “Remind yourself daily that there is no way to happiness; rather, happiness is the way.” ― Wayne W. Dyer, Change Your Thoughts – Change Your Life: Living the Wisdom of the Tao

Don’t give up on your dreams; don’t let others talk you out of your dreams. Make your dreams happen. Make it happen today.

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